Background
For years, North Korea has been seen as an unpredictable and dangerous state. The country is known to be isolated, oppressive and has been in direct confrontation with the United States since the Korean War. In recent times, tensions between the US and North Korea have been escalating and the security of the US has become a major concern for Americans. North Korea is a nuclear state and the US is worried about the possibility of North Korea utilizing their nuclear capabilities against American interests. In 2017, when the relationship between the two countries reached an all-time low, the question of whether, or not, the United States is safe from North Korean aggression, found its way into the public discourse.
Political Perspectives
Political leaders who have professed their loyalty to the US have declared that the country is safe from North Korea. United States ambassador to the United Nations, Nikki Haley stated that it is “impossible for us to have any kind of relationship with North Korea.” The former US Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson had also stated in 2017, that the US and North Korea were “a long way from negotiations.” Military Generals, such as General Joseph Dunford have described the US security as “crisp” and “tight” when it comes to the potential of North Korean aggression against the US.
Intelligence Report
Intelligence reports have also suggested that the US is, in fact safe from aggression from North Korea as the country appears to be more focused on developing their infrastructure and economy, than engaging in conflict. A 2017 report by the United States Intelligence Agency suggested that the leader of North Korea, Kim Jong Un, while still dedicated to the improvement of their military, was more interested in diplomacy and improving the countries economy.
Viewpoint of Experts
Experts have noted that while the US is safe from North Korean aggression, the country does not appear to be willing to resolve the current conflict without engaging in some form of confrontation. According to Andrew O’Neil, professor at the Griffith University in Australia, the US is “safe from North Korea” but that the US should tread carefully when engaging with North Korea as the “country could still decide to conduct military exercises to demonstrate their nuclear capabilities.”
Economic Impact
It has been established that North Korea does not pose a direct threat to the US but its presence does have an economic impact on the world. According to Harry Kazianis, senior director at the Washington-based Center for the National Interest, “North Korea’s nuclear program has created an economic impact on the region and the world.” It is understood that the development of the countries nuclear capabilities has led to instability in the markets, created uncertainty and caused a degree of financial hardship.
Analyzing Risks
While the US has been deemed safe from North Korean aggression, intelligence and experts agree that the US should increase their measures to protect the country and to engage in dialogue with Pyongyang. According to Stephen Biegun, the US special envoy to North Korea, “the United States needs to maintain a constructive dialogue with North Korea in order to reduce the risks of conflict or confrontation.” However, Biegun also notes that the US must take a realistic approach to the negotiations and be aware of the North Korea’s capabilities and their willingness to utilize them if necessary.
Path for Resolving Tension
Although the US is safe from North Korean aggression, the diplomatic and strategic relations between the two states remain fragile. In 2018, the US President, Donald Trump held a summit with the North Korean leader, Kim Jong Un, in which both parties agreed to work towards complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. The US appears to be committed to the resolution of tension and to the ceasing of threats and weapons testing.
Public Opinion
Public opinion has varied significantly according to the events that have transpired between the two countries. In the US, opinion polls taken after the summit between the Trump and Kim found that Americans were cautiously optimistic of the outcome. A majority of Americans felt that hostile relations between the two countries had been reduced and that both parties were on their way towards understanding.
Role of United Nations
The United Nations has been crucial in the process of resolving tensions between North Korea and the US. The UN has imposed a series of sanctions on North Korea in order to incentivize progress and to ensure that the country remains non-aggressive. The UN has also worked to ensure the safeguard of the US from North Korean aggression by providing a forum for distribution and de-escalation.
Potential Security Breaches
Despite the US being safe from North Korean aggression, security breaches such as North Korea’s cyber attack on Sony Pictures in 2014, demonstrate that the country can still potentially target America. The cyber attack crippled Sony’s computer systems and led to the release of confidential data online which led to Sony suffering heavy losses financially. It is therefore evident that the US is safe from North Korean aggression but security breaches do remain a risk.
Geopolitical View
Security analysts argue that in order to protect the US from North Korean aggression, the US needs to make an effort to foster a co-operative framework in order for the two countries to make progress towards a resolution. According to the International Crisis Group, there is a need for the two countries to “engage in meaningful dialogue,” in order to reduce the risk of confrontation. Analysts stress that the resolution of this issue requires a holistic approach which involves understanding and engaging with the various stakeholders including the UN, South Korea and China.
Changing Nature of Conflict
The complexity of the situation is also highlighted by the changing nature of the conflict between the two countries. From a confrontation of military power to economic warfare, the two countries have been entangled in various issues which further hinder the resolution of the issue. It is a difficult situation which requires the US to be proactive in addressing the many shades of grey.
Risk of Escalation
The potential for the conflict to reach an escalated stage remains a risk, admit experts. John Delury, an expert on North Korea at Yonsei University in South Korea, believes that the US needs to “continue to take precautions” and that “preventive measures must be in place if North Korea does decide to become aggressive.” This however, does not mean that the US needs to be actively preparing for a war but rather to be in a state of readiness and to remain open to possibilities.
